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09/09/2010 -
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) -Barrett Jones was 5 months, 2 days old the last time Alabama and Penn State played.
He doesn't remember the game, but the top-ranked Crimson Tide's guard has become fairly well versed on a rivalry that has featured memorable kicks, great defenses and a goal line stand that is a significant part of 'Bama lore.
``I can't speak for everybody on the team, but I really feel like I appreciate the history of the game,'' said Jones, born on May 25, 1990. ``I feel like this is really something special. You go into an old Alabama restaurant - which there are many of them across the state - and you see old games playing. And a lot of times you see Alabama-Penn State, and it's great to be a part of that rivalry.
``Maybe one day they'll be showing our Alabama-Penn State (game) on the TVs.''
Saturday night's showdown will be televised.
The Tide and 19th-ranked Nittany Lions face off at Bryant-Denny Stadium in their first meeting since 1990, renewing a rivalry that has produced some classic moments and monumental games.
Jones knows about the biggest of them all. ``The goal line stand in '79.''
In a battle of No. 1 vs. No. 2, Alabama's Barry Krauss upended running back Mike Guman at the goal line to preserve the Tide's 14-7 win in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 1979. It gave second-ranked 'Bama a national title.
Defensive back Don McNeal had knocked Scott Fitzkee out of bounds about a foot from the goal line on the second-and-goal play before that.
``Can I ever forget it? I don't want to ever forget it, I really don't,'' said McNeal, a great uncle of current Penn State quarterback Rob Bolden. ``I had covered my guy in the end zone on that play, I saw he made the throw and just reacted. I hit him and took him out of bounds. My roommate Curtis McGriff said, `Don, that's one heck of a play you just made.' I didn't realize that. I was just playing football.''
Krauss was the one immortalized. Penn State assistant athletic director Fran Ganter, running backs coach for that '79 team, knows that from his last Tuscaloosa trip.
``We went into the building, and the first thing we saw was a mural of Barry Krauss stopping Mike Guman,'' Ganter recalls.
The first four meetings included Hall of Fame coaches Bear Bryant of Alabama and Penn State's Joe Paterno - an assistant in the 1959 game.
Much has changed in the two decades since the teams last met, when Penn State's defense dominated the game. The Nittany Lions picked off five passes and recovered a fumble in a 9-0 win in 1990. Alabama managed just 6 yards rushing, nearly 200 below its season average.
Paterno recalls Alabama agreeing to play a home-and-home series, something other Southeastern Conference teams were reluctant to do.
``It's a great experience to take a bunch of kids down to the stadium such as the one we're going to play in with that many people and the kind of enthusiasm,'' he said. ``And they'll learn from it. They'll be better, they'll remember.''
The two teams played eight times in the 1980s, producing a bounty of memories.
If the '79 Sugar Bowl is the biggest one for Alabama fans, there are a few more pleasing to the Nittany Lions (though the Tide leads the series 8-5).
-Oct. 12, 1985. National title contender Penn State set up Matt Knizner's 11-yard touchdown pass to tight end Brian Siverling with Michael Timpson's 29-yard reverse. Eventual Tide coach Mike Shula threw for a 14-yard score to Thornton Chandler with 14 seconds left, but the onside kick failed. Penn State 19-17.
-Oct. 8, 1983. Alabama quarterback Walter Lewis' pass to Preston Gothard in the end zone was ruled out of bounds in Penn State's 34-28 win. The Nittany Lions then stopped Kerry Goode short from the 2 as time expired.
Happier memories for the Tide:
-Oct. 13, 1984: Van Tiffin's 53-yard field goal set a then-school record in a 6-0 Alabama win. Penn State missed two first-half kicks, then couldn't cross Alabama's 45.
-Oct. 28, 1989. Defensive lineman Thomas Rayam blocked Ray Tarasi's last-second 17-yard field goal attempt after a high snap. Alabama wins 17-16.
The average score of the first 13 meetings was appropriate for two programs known for defense: Alabama 12.4, Penn State 11.8.
All that history is ancient for the current players on both sides.
``I'm sure to our fans it probably means something,'' Tide coach Nick Saban said. ``To most of our players, I think they have a tremendous amount of respect for Penn State based on the great program that they've had in their lifetime, whether they've played Alabama or not. I really don't think it means a lot to the players, and it's not something that we emphasize with the players.
``We're looking forward, not in the rear-view mirror.''
Penn State guard Stefen Wisniewski knows more than most of his teammates about the history with Alabama. His father, Leo, played for the Nittany Lions from 1979-81.
``I think most people my age probably don't appreciate the whole Bear Bryant-JoePa thing as much,'' the younger Wisniewski said. ``Personally I have a little more of an appreciation for it because of my father's connection to the program. My dad played in the '79 Sugar Bowl and played against Alabama, so I have a little bit a sense of the history, and how cool of a rivalry this is.''
Alabama linebacker Dont'a Hightower is only vaguely familiar with the stand in the '79 game, but he can picture making a game-saving stop like Krauss.
``I'd be speechless,'' Hightower said. ``You got a vision going in my head. I don't even know how to explain that feeling. That would be something that'd go down in history.''
---
AP Sports Writer Genaro C. Armas in State College, Pa., contributed to this report.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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